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Credits: Miki Yokokawa MD, Hakan Oral MD, Aman Chugh MD.
Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Corresponding Author: Miki Yokokawa, MD. Cardiovascular Center, 1500 East Medical Center Drive, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-5853.
Radiofrequency catheter ablation that targets the pulmonary veins is well established as a mainstay for
drug-refractory, paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF). However, in patients with persistent AF, the ideal approach
remains elusive.
Further,
despite the various
additional ablation strategies that have
been investigated
in
patients with persistent AF,
the
rate of recurrent atrial tachyarrhythmias
after ablation remains
relatively
high. In
this review,
the predictors
of
recurrent atrial
tachyarrhythmias
after catheter ablation
of
persistent AF
will be discussed.
While there is consensus regarding the ablation
strategy in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation
(AF),1
the ideal strategy for patients with
persistent AF remains unclear. Patients with persistent
AF
do
not respond well
to pulmonary vein
(PV)
isolation
as the sole
strategy.2
Although outcome
in
patients with persistent AF
is improved
with
extra-PV
ablation, e.g.,
ablation
of
complex
fractionated
atrial electrograms (CFAEs)
and
linear
ablation,
patients
frequently require repeat
ablation
procedures for
organized arrhythmias.3
Identifying the predictors of recurrence is of obvious
clinical importance in enhancing efficacy
and achieving better long-term outcomes. This
review focuses on predictors of recurrent atrial
tachyarrhythmias after ablation of persistent AF.
Several studies have reported various factors as
predictive of arrhythmia recurrence. These include
demographic factors such as age4,5
and duration
of
AF,6
and comorbid conditions such as
metabolic syndrome7
and obstructive sleep apnea.8
The impact of coexisting heart diseases may also
contribute to AF recurrence.9
Apart from demographic
and historical factors, structural
remodeling
as revealed
by imaging modalities such
as
echocardiography,10
computed tomography,11,12
and magnetic resonance imaging13,14
have alsobeen shown to be associated with arrhythmia
outcome. Invasively determined factors such
as AF cycle length,15,16
atrial pressure,17
and volume18
have also been evaluated. More sophisticated
techniques such as substrate mapping,19
AF frequency,20
and integrity of linear lesions21,22
have also shown to be important in predicting arrhythmia
recurrence
after
catheter
ablation.
These
factors
will be each discussed
in
detail below.
Age
Advancing age is a strong risk factor for the development
of AF
and is associated
with arrhythmia
recurrence
following
catheter ablation of persistent
AF.4,5
Aging is related to structural remodeling
culminating in low voltage areas/scar and
conduction
slowing associated with atrial fibrosis.23-26
Atrial fibrosis may increase the complexity
of the fibrillatory process by causing formation of
multiple drivers.27
In fact, advancing age was the
only predictor of left atrial (LA) scarring in a recent
study.28
In the absence of randomized data
or observational data from large studies, it is not
clear whether the elderly fare worse with catheter
ablation as compared to younger cohorts. Prior
studies have reported that outcomes in the elderly
are not significantly different than in younger patients.29,30
More recent studies have reported discordant
results. For example, a study by Yoshida
et al. concluded that age is associated with recurrence
in patients undergoing an extensive
ablation
strategy
for
persistent AF.5
In a more recent study,
it was shown that the efficacy and complication
rates are in keeping with those of younger patients.28
It is probably fair to conclude that arrhythmogenic
substrate
in the elderly is likely to be more
complex
that
in younger patients, and elderly
patients
with
significant
structural
remodeling
probably
do not respond as well
to catheter ablation.
However,
patients should not
be excluded from
undergoing
ablation
on
the basis of age alone.31
Duration of AF
Longer duration of AF is associated with shortening
of
the
atrial
effective
refractory
period,
which
further
perpetuates
AF.6
The perpetuation of AF
itself contributes to electric and structural remodeling
of the atria. Patients
with longer duration
of
persistent AF
do not
respond as
well
to antiarrhythmic
medications, catheter
or surgical ablation,32
and are more likely to have recurrence of
atrial arrhythmias after the ablation.33,34
A recent
study suggested that the distribution of the atrial
substrate differs among patients depending on
the duration of AF.33
In patients with long-standing
AF,
the
fibrillatory
substrate
includes
not
only
the
left
but
also
the
right
atrium
(Figure
1).
These
patients
not
only require additional ablation during
the index procedure, but may also require repeat
ablation procedures after elimination of the
LA
contribution.
The
potential
targets
in
the
right
atrium
include the right atrial appendage, free
wall
along the tricuspid annulus,
the
septum, roof
of
the right atrium,
ostium of the coronary
sinus,
and
the posterior wall.35
Identification of complex electrograms at these candidate sites is key
to eliminate right atrial drivers in these patients..
Figure 1: Additional ablation of complex fractionated atrial electrograms at the base of the right atrial appendage (A) resulted in termination of atrial fibrillation (AF) to sinus rhythm during ablation in a patient with long-standing persistent AF (B). ABL= ablation catheter; CS= coronary sinus; IVC= inferior vena cava; LA= left atrium; RA= right atrium; SVC= superior vena cava.

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Structural Heart Disease
The presence of structural heart disease such as
valvular heart disease,36,37
nonischemic cardiomyopathy,36
hypertrophic cardiomyopathy38 and
coronary disease39
is likely associated with higher
recurrence rates after AF ablation. Patients with
valvular heart disease may have a higher degree
of atrial disarray and irreversible fibrosis which
curtail the successful outcome after the ablation.
The advanced valvular disease could develop irreversible
atrial myopathy. AF
recurrence of hypertrophic
cardiomyopathy often accompany with
diastolic
dysfunction, elevated
LA pressure,
and
LA
enlargement. The progressive atrial remodeling,
fibrosis by collagen metabolism abnormali-
ties, atrial stretch and enlargement exacerbated by
rising left ventricular filling pressure could have
contributed substantially to AF recurrence in patients
with structural heart disease, even
when the
procedure
is initially successful. The challenges
in these patients include not only the severely enlarged
atria, but also
the presence of atrial scarring.
These findings should be taken into consideration
when selecting patients for ablation of
persistent AF.
Metabolic Syndrome
Metabolic syndrome defined as obesity, hypertension,
dyslipidemia, diabetes and glucose intolerance
is associated
with a larger LA size and may
increase
the
risk for
recurrence
after
AF
ablation.7
Hypertension is associated with diastolic ventricular
dysfunction, left ventricular
hypertrophy and
elevated
intracardiac pressure.40
Obesity is associated
with impaired ventricular
diastolic performance
and
may
promotes atrial remodeling due
to
the chronic elevation
in the intracardiac pressures.41
In obese patients, elevated plasma volume,
enhanced neurohormonal activation along with
oxidative stress and subclinical inflammation conditions
may play a role in the perpetuation of AF.42
A recent study demonstrated that baseline inflammatory
markers such as C-reactive
protein and
total
white blood cell
count
are
associated
with
metabolic
syndrome predicted higher recurrence
rate
after AF
ablation.43
Although patients with
metabolic syndrome may be more likely to experience
arrhythmia recurrence, these patients should
not
be denied
catheter ablation
based on this factor
alone.
These
patients
may
be
more
likely
to
require
repeat
procedures
and perhaps, an extra-PV
approach,
but the expectation is that the majority
of
these patients with drug-refractory AF
should
benefit
from catheter ablation.
Obstructive Sleep Apnea
Obstructive sleep apnea is associated with an increase
in
the probability of AF
recurrence after ablation.8
Possible mechanisms by which obstructive
sleep apnea predisposes to AF include intermittent
hypoxemia, hypercapnia, autonomic imbalance
with surges in sympathetic tone. Hypoxemia and
hypercapnia have direct adverse effects on cardiac
electrical stability. The sympathetically mediated
vasoconstriction increases arterial pressure and
cause diastolic dysfunction followed by LA dilatation.
Atrial
stretch also may promote emergence
of
new triggers and perpetuate AF. Recent study
demonstrated that treatment of continuous positive
airway
pressure improved
success
rate
of AF
ablation
in patients
with obstructive
sleep
apnea.44
Continuous positive airway pressure may decrease
frequency
of hypoxemic
episodes,
prevent
atrial
stretch and raise the nadir value
for lower
nocturnal
oxygen saturation.
LA Size
LA size is a predictor of freedom from atrial arrhythmias
after single and repeat ablation procedures.10
Remodeling of the atria during persistent
AF is a time-dependent process, and typically results
in the enlargement of LA dimensions.5
Atrial
dilatation has been recognized as a major pathophysiological
factor
in
the
perpetuation of AF.45
An
enlarged atrium modulates the electroanatomic
substrate with the increased nonuniform anisotropy
and a conduction disturbance, which could
contribute
to the heterogeneity of the
LA. A
prior
experimental
study showed
that atrial
stretch resulted
from LA dilatation also may promote AF
maintenance
by high-frequency
focal discharges
that
generate fibrillatory conduction and wave
break.46
LA diameter measured from the parasternal longaxis
view on transthoracic echocardiography, has
been
widely used to
assess the
LA size.
However,
recent
studies have
suggested that LA volume may
be
more accurate in the estimation of the LA size
and
may
be a more robust
marker of recurrrence.18
Patients with severe LA enlargement (>5.5 cm
on transthoracic echocardiography) should be
counseled that they are probably more likely to
require multiple procedures prior to achieving
sinus rhythm. These patients may harbor AF drivers
that are not addressed by
PV isolation or ablation
of complex electrograms. Further, in patients
with
severe
chamber dilatation, technical
issues
such
as catheter stability may
also play a role in
arrhythmia
recurrence. Lastly, the processes (other
than
AF)
that contribute to
chamber enlargement,
e.g.,
hypertension, sleep
apnea,
heart failure, and
others
need to be constantly addressed to
prevent
further
adverse
remodeling. Patients
with an LA
diameter
>6.5 cm probably should not be offered
catheter ablation since their outcomes are likely to
be suboptimal despite multiple procedures of long
duration.
Atrial Pressure
The atrial stretch imparted by elevated LA pressure
may contribute to the maintenance of AF
by
stabilizing
high-frequency
sources and make it less
likely
to
spontaneous terminate.17
The higher LA
pressure in patients with persistent AF results in a
greater degree of stretch-related electrical remodeling,
resulting in a higher AF
frequency.17
A stretchrelated
mechanisms of
AF
has
been
proposed in
a
number
of clinical conditions, such
as mitral valve
disease,
heart
failure and obstructive
sleep
apnea.
Treatment of the underlying conditions, such
as hypertension, sleep apnea, heart failure, and
obesity may be protective in preventing ongoing
structural remodeling related to atrial stretch.
Preexistent LA Scarring
Fibrosis in the LA may help to anchor reentrant
circuits, alter the wave-front propergation and
cause wave break and conduction delay.7
Patients
with LA scar were
less likely to respond to
catheter
ablation.13,14
Recently, delayed enhanced
magnetic resonance imaging using gadolinium
contrast has been used to analyze scar burden.13,14
The LA voltage during catheter mapping may be
representative of the structural integrity of the
atria and a lower voltage is a predictor of recurrent
atrial tachyarrhythmias
after AF
ablation.19
The posterior wall is preferentially scarred in patients
with persistent AF.13
The posterior LA scarring
could be associated with
a lower
contribution
of PV arrhythmogenicity, making antral PV
isolation
less
likely
to
be
effective.
These
patients
obviously
require mapping of AF
drivers
outside
the
PV antrum. Possible strategies include linear
ablation
and ablation of CFAEs.
AF Cycle Length
AF cycle length may be used as a surrogate parameter
for the acute efficacy of ablation.47-49
A
shorter AF cycle length reflects a short refractory
period and higher number of perpetuating activities,
both of which are characteristic of persistent
AF.47
AF termination is more likely to occur in patients
with a longer AF
cycle
length
at baseline.43
However, this may not be the case in patients with
LA scar.28
Although the baseline AF cycle length
is longer in patients with scar, this does not necessarily
make it easier
to terminate AF
with the
ablation.
It is possible that AF
cycle length is not
a
reliable marker of acute efficacy of ablation in
patients with LA scar.28
A recent study using fast
Fourier transform analysis demonstrated that a
reduction in the dominant frequency by 11% or
more by the ablation was a predictor of successful
outcome with less radiofrequency energy and a
shorter procedure time than those of termination
of AF.20
Whether tailoring the ablation procedure
with respect to real time frequency analysis is associated with an improved outcome is unknown.
PV Reconnection
Although the clinical efficacy of pulmonary vein
isolation is much lower when AF is persistent than
when it is paroxysmal, PV isolation is the cornerstone
of AF
ablation.51
A recent study reported that
in patients who underwent repeat ablation for arrhythmia
recurrences after ablation of
persistent
AF,
more than 1 PVs
reconnected in all patients
and
only re-isolating these PVs
resulted in no recurrence
in 80% of patients.52
The preprocedural
recognition of specific patterns and variants of
PV anatomy may be helpful as a roadmap to help
achieve PV isolation. Computed tomography and
magnetic resonance imaging acquired before the
ablation provide detailed anatomic features and
morphological changes. Anatomical variations of
the PVs may be detected in up to 30% of patients
and the most frequent variant is the common ostium
of the left-sided PVs.53
Since a common ostium
usually is larger than the diameter of available
circular
mapping catheters, precise mapping and
localization
of PV fascicles
may be challenging.
Further
studies are needed to clarify the clinical
utility
of preprocedural imaging to detect specific
patterns and variants of PV anatomy. Recently,
cryoablation has emerged as a promising tool allowing
PV
isolation
in
a
safe
and
effective
manner.
However,
in some patients,
electrical
isolation of
all
PVs
cannot be achieved
using a single size cryoballoon
because of unfavorable angulations of the
PV
ostia and the size of the PV ostia relative
to the
ablation catheter.54
Ablation of CFAE as a Risk Factor for AT
CFAEs may indicate sites of slow conduction, collision,
anchor points for reentrant circuits, wavebreak
and fibrillatory conduction at the periphery
of a
rotor.55-57
Although ablation of CFAEs has
been reported to achieve long-term arrhythmia
freedom after a single procedure in up to 70% of
patients with persistent AF,56
there has been difficulty
reproducing
these results using CFAE
ablation
alone.57
The potential explanations for the discrepancy
were
the inconsistency
in interpretation
of
CFAEs,
inadequate CFAE
ablation and proarrhythmic
effect
of
CFAE
ablation
by
creating
zones
of
slow conduction.58
A prior study suggested that extensive ablation creates extremely slow conduction
that allows for small circuits.59
The localized
reentrant atrial tachycardias were found predominantly
within regions
in
which CFAEs
were
ablated.
However,
CFAEs
remain
an
important target
in
patients undergoing catheter ablation of persistent
AF.60
Linear Block
Linear ablation of the LA roof and the mitral isthmus
have
a role in elimination of AF
following PV
isolation.61,62
Linear ablation has been demonstrated
to be necessary to terminate AF
in large percentage
of
patients with
long-standing
persistent
AF
in a prior study.48
Documentation of conduction
block across these
lines is critical and has been
shown
to be associated
with a lower
risk of recur-
rent atrial tachycardias. Indeed, incomplete mitral
isthmus or roof lines may serve as a significant
substrate for gap-related proarrhythmia (Figure
2).21,22
Figure 2: Activation map during peri-mitral reentry (A: left anterior oblique projection). Entrainment mapping from the lateral mitral annulus demonstrates that the post-pacing interval is 245 ms, matching the tachycardia cycle length (B). Endocardial ablation at the mitral isthmus failed to terminate the tachycardia. Radiofrequency energy delivery in the distal coronary sinus (CS) terminated the tachycardia to sinus rhythm. (C). ABL= ablation catheter; MA= mitral annulus.

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A previous study demonstrated that the morphological
characteristics of the mitral isthmus and
its
anatomical relationship to the adjacent vasculature
affect the achieving conduction block.12
A
pouch morphology, greater isthmus depth, and
the circumflex artery are associated with challenging
linear ablation at the mitral isthmus. An
interposed
circumflex artery is also predictive of
unsuccessful linear ablation at the mitral isthmus.
The heat-sink effect of blood flow in the circumflex
artery may prevent adequate heating of the atrial
myocardium during ablation. If an interposed circumflex
artery
is
found
on
computed
tomography
or
magnetic resonance imaging, it is probably best
to
avoid empiric ablation at the mitral isthmus in
patients
with persistent
AF.
In patients
with a
pouch
morphology,
it
may be difficult to achieve
adequate tissue contact during endocardial ablation
and hence, very
frequently require
ablation
within
the coronary sinus to achieve
complete
block.
Conduction block of the LA roof was reached more
frequently compared with the mitral isthmus.62
However, it may be challenging in some patients.
Several studies have analyzed the anatomy of the
LA roof in patients undergoing AF ablation.11,63
A
recent study suggested that there was no significant
difference
in
the
myocardial
thickness
of
the
LA
roof,
curvilinear
length, distance
to
the right
pulmonary
artery, angulation
with
respect
to the
superior
pulmonary veins,
or other morphological
aspects
of the LA roof in patients with
and without
complete block.64
A left (from the circumflex
artery) sinus node artery was the only independent
predictor of incomplete conduction block at
the
LA roof.64
The left sinus node artery may act as
an epicardial heat-sink, preventing adequate heating
of the LA roof during linear ablation.
Termination of AF during Catheter Ablation
Termination of persistent AF during ablation usually
requires
extensive
ablation beyond the
PVs, including ablation of CFAEs and multiple linear
lesions. Termination of AF may represent suppression
of
AF
drivers
and
perpetuating
activities
and
has been associated with good outcomes.47-49
However, recent studies suggested that AF termination
did not impact the long-term sinus rhythm
maintenance.5,65,66
After extensive ablation, patients
may not longer have
AF
but instead may
require
repeat procedures for
atrial tachycardias.65
We need to find out how much ablation is required
to eliminate AF and to avoid excessive ablation
which may be detrimental not only in terms of
pro-arrhythmia but also LA mechanical function.
To be sure, some patients require ablation of organized
atrial tachycardias as an intermediate step
before
sinus rhythm is achieved. The challenge
is to reduce the prevalence of atrial tachycardias
while maintaining the efficacy of AF elimination.
Spectral Characteristics of AF
A recent study that analyzed the spectral characteristics
of AF
suggested that atrial tachycardias to
which
AF
converts
during the ablation may
represent
organized tachycardias that coexist
with AF
despite
a lower
frequency.67
Those spectral components
were
more prevalent
at baseline among
patients
in whom AF
persisted than in those in
whom
AF
terminated during ablation.68
In addition,
linear ablation resulted in a significant decrease
in
the
prevalence
of
spectral
components.68
Whether the prevalence of spectral components
can be used as a predictor of recurrent atrial
tachyarrhythmias after ablation of persistent AF
remains to be determined.
Early Recurrence of Atrial Tachyarrhythmias
Early recurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmias has
typically not been equated with procedural failure.
A
transient increase in atrial vulnerability
caused
by an acute inflammatory changes due to
radiofrequency energy and autonomic remodeling
after ablation may cause early
recurrences
of
atrial tachyarrhythmias.69
A recent study suggested
that transient use of corticosteroids shortly
after AF ablation may inhibit inflammatory re-
sponses and decrease early AF recurrences.70
Corticosteroid
treatment
may also
halt
electrical or
functional remodeling and prevent late AF recurrences.70
Early recurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmias
has also been associated
with late arrhythmia
recurrences after ablation of persistent AF.52,71
However, the mechanisms of early recurrence of
atrial tachyarrhythmias needs further study and
the optical timing for the second procedure needs
to be defined.
Knowledge of the predictors of recurrent atrial
tachyarrhythmias may play an important role to
improve long-term outcome after catheter of persistent
AF.
Further studies are needed to clarify
the
clinical
significance
of
these
predictors
in
large
cohorts
of patients and
identify the
strategies
to
maintain
sinus rhythm
after the ablation in patients with persistent AF.
No disclosures relevant to this article were made by the authors.
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